Why I still care about the BC Rail Scandal

Just before all the details of the BC Rail sale were about to come out, the 2 men on trail changed their pleas to guilty and 6 million dollars were illegally paid to cover their costs, they were given house arrest rather than hard jail time and put under a gag order to not say anything ever about what happened.  Since then, enormous effort and additional money has been expended by the government to keep all the details buried. 

I think a 10 year old can figure out the plot here. If there is nothing to hide then you don’t waste effort hiding things.  Anybody who cares to look at this knows that it stinks. If Christy Clark and other Liberal leaders are not guilty, then who are they protecting? The only thing we don’t know for sure is the details and who is being protected?

I have talked with a few dozen people about this and I have only heard 2 opinions. Most of the time, I hear that we must have an inquiry, get the details and move on. Sometimes however, I talk with people who say there is no sense because all politicians and parties are corrupt and we just have to accept it.  I have never met anyone who thinks there is nothing to hide.

This resignation to accept that our government cannot be held to account is why I believe we MUST have an inquiry. This is not a vendetta against any person or persons involved. It is much more important than that. An inquiry is required to restore voter confidence in our democracy and public process.

Clean Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

In my May 10, 2012 blog I noted that I didn’t think the LNG goals being touted by the BC Liberals were realistic. Although I didn’t go into all my reasons, I note in general that we are not ready to expand quickly enough to achieve what is being presented. Primarily, we do not have the infrastructure in place, nor has the government presented any plan for how we would create that infrastructure. 

It comes as no surprise to me that we now have an announcement that Natural Gas is being redefined to be clean energy. Our BC Clean Energy Act requires 93% of our energy to be clean.

There was no way we could power the LNG plants from our existing grid. For them to work, they must be self sufficient by creating the vast amount of electricity they require from a portion of the natural gas they are buying. This would not be legal under the existing Clean Energy Act unless the natural gas they use was exempted from the Act. To do that, it must be determined to be a clean source.  So we are creating a new category. Basically, dirty energy is clean if it will replace even dirtier energy.  

I believe this must have been the plan since the beginning as I don’t want to believe that the governance of our province is in the hands of people who didn’t think about how to power a plant before deciding to build a set of them.

I am not opposed to the logic of the change. If we really are enabling China or Japan to stop burning wood and coal and use LNG then we should be able to justify LNG as a transitional energy source. I am completely in favour of finding ways to make smooth transitions to cleaner energy.  However, I would argue that the way this is being done is not above board. If we truly want to use that logic, we should re-examine the Clean Energy Act and correct it so that we have a clear definition of transitional energy and how we will measure it.  We don’t need more slight-of-hand politics to avoid thought-through, debated legislation.

And while we are thinking about the infrastructure needed for the LNG industry we are being promised, have we really considered how we will deal with the growth in other areas. The BC Liberals are promising 1 million new jobs with six or seven hundred thousand immigrant families to help staff them. In her heart, Christy Clark would see our province grow around 25% in a decade. What about housing, police, schools (including significantly more assistance for non-English speaking students and ESL for adult students), hospitals, roads.  Is there a plan to manage the growth or not? Or will it just come out when the government thinks the public needs to know?

Supporting the right team

Although we in the Shuswap had hoped to be able to select our riding's candidate before summer, we have been asked to wait until the fall. For me, this was somewhat disappointing initially but I am actually very glad that the BC Conservative party it taking this stance.

We are moving carefully so that before any candidates are selected, we will have the support in place to help them in their approach to their campaign. Our party values the grass roots and independence of our candidates. We are the only party in BC that insists that our MLAs must put their riding constituents first before the party. But that doesn't mean that we don't share a common focus and are not working together to improve the life of British Columbians. Having our party organized to support us is exactly what we will need as we move toward the provincial elections next May.

I am glad to see that our party and its leader, John Cummins, has the good sense move at a pace that will best prepare us all and protect us. The calibre of the men and women coming forward to run for candidacy is exceptional and we will be fielding an excellent team into the next election for BC.

Liquified Natural Gas in BC

The scene is the Dragon's Den and a new prospect has just walked in.

Hello Dragon's, I am Christy Clark, the leader of the British Columbia Liberal government and I am looking for a $50 billion dollar investment for a 15% share in the BC Liquefied Natural Gas industry (LNG)

The questions start:

Dragons: That is a $600 Billion valuation of your product.  Do you have a plant or any sales?
CC: Why yes we do. We have a plant at Kitamat that is ready to start production in 2015. We have some purchase agreements and should be ready for 5 mmtpa (million metric tonnes per annum)

Dragons: LNG worldwide sells about 300 mmtpa (or $200 Billion) and is anticipated to grow by another 200 mmtpa (or $135 Billion) by 2020. What percentage of that new growth do you expect to capture?
CC: We are ready to capture 15% or $20 Billion a year, with 30 year agreements to make up the $600 Billion valuation.

Dragons: Currently you appear to be on track to only capture 1/6th of that with your Kitamat plant. And $20 Billion/year is more than your entire oil and gas industry currently produces. How do you intend to increase production to the point where you will be able to take 15% of the growth in the market from the existing players who are also vying for the same industry increases?
CC: That is where your $50 Billion comes in. We need to double the size of the Kitamat plant and built at least 2 or 3 other plants.  Of course we only need $7 or $8 Billion up front and then the rest as the gas purchase agreements are signed.

Dragons: So you need $7-8 Billion to do the ground work in order to make the sales so that you can expand this industry to a size larger than you entire oil and gas industry to date and do it all quickly enough to capture 1/6th of the new growth in an industry where the other producers have been working for decades and have close ties with all the clients you are hoping to sign up?
CC: Yes, I am confident because I believe in jobs and this will make thousands of jobs.  It is a staggering number but we can do it if my government is given another term.

Dragons: This is a great opportunity that needs to be aggressively pursued but your valuation is at least 5 times over inflated, so I am out.

The numbers that Christy Clark is glibly throwing around ($600 Billion over 30 years) represent 10% of our province's GDP. Those numbers apear to be for re-election consumption only. This is a growing industry to be sure but we are late adopters. If we can capture 5% of the growth in this industry we would be doing exceedingly well and would likely be at the highest capacity that the Kitamat plant can be expanded to handle. (10 mmtpa). That would be only $6-7 Billion/year or $200 Billion/30 years. Even this would be an enormous goal.

I am not saying that we shouldn't strive for this and more, I am just saying that the numbers don't appear realistic and I would like to see the plan to reach them. Otherwise, this is just massive exaggeration to sell a government that is in desperate need of some good news. I know I wouldn't want my performance evaluation to be tied to hitting those targets.

short list of sources reviewed to find the math behind the promises:
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Clark+embarks+second+trade+mission/6595365/story.html
http://www.kitimatlngfacility.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquefied_natural_gas
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Files/5fba2481-01e9-4579-83d3-6b6c6c1c15c8/BCGDPbyIndustryCurrentDollars.xlsx
http://armiesofliberation.com/archives/2010/06/19/yemen-natural-gas-sold-at-one-third-of-market-price-193ton-vs-689ton/

Success of Nazinga Game Reserve

The Nazinga Game Reserve is just south of Ouagadougou, where I worked in Burkina Faso, West Africa. It was founded by 2 Canadian brothers, Clark and Robert Lungren. They believed that when human prosperity is generated through sustainable management of natural resources, both people and environments win.

The wildlife in the area had been decimated by poaching and drought. So they built dams to maintain the water supply and roads to access the area. Then they hired the best poachers as game wardens. Even before the herds began to recover, they started culling them and selling the meat in the local markets.

By providing jobs to the local villagers and allowing hunting, they got the cooperation of the local municipalities and with the large amount of meat becoming available at reasonable rates in the markets they effectively put the rest of the poachers out of business.

Although they took a lot of criticism for the dams, roads and culling of the herds (including elephants), this is what allowed them to manage the resources and make them profitable. The result was that within 10 years the herds had increased ten fold including 800 elephants and 5000 warthogs. The local communities also benefited and the children were healthier due to the better meat supplies and reduced poverty.

The success of the Nazinga Game Reserve demonstrates that if we want to preserve our natural resources, the best way is to develop them. When they are profitable, they can be protected. If they are not profitable, they will be neglected.

The BC Conservative Party believes in managing our natural resources through environmentally sensible development. This will provide jobs for British Columbians, taxes to support our social structure and value that will allow our natural resources to be protected in perpetuity.

Liberals Are Ready to make nice

The BC Liberals are ready to deal and put it all on the table to bring back the BC Conservatives. Well maybe not all, but they ARE willing to change their name!

http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/354699--change-bc-liberal-party-name-conservative-stalwart

I am more insulted than I have words to express. They at basically saying that I must be willing to topple the current government simply because I don't want to be called a Liberal. Excuse me!  I am amazed they are seriously floating this rubbish in public. 

The BC Conservative party was revitalized by a flood of members after 

1. The BC Liberals continually refused to answer allegations about corruption in their highest levels. The sale of BC Rail is the biggest example of this but by no means the only one and more keep coming. 
2. The BC Liberal leadership proved themselves to be inept. Look at the BC Place name embarrassment for an example but more flood in weekly and sometimes daily
3. Then as a final straw, the BC Liberals moved substantially to the left and abandoned their conservative base

We had absolutely nothing left to stay for and we have nothing to come back for either. 

But now they are ready to change their name for us. Thank you but I am not that void of purpose. They may keep their name and I will keep my BC Conservative party

BC Conservative Next Steps

Congratulations to the NDP candidates Joe Trasolini and Gwen O'Mahony. They ran good clean campaigns and had solid wins. 

Last night, we made great strides too and captured 10 times the share of votes that we did in the last election. However, the BC Conservative party was not able to frame our position in such a way so as to capture enough of the voters who have been fleeing the Liberal party. Many have gone to the NDP or just stayed home. We must reframe our position so as to better connect with the public.

I believe that one area we have to control is our dissatisfaction. Lets face it, we have many people joining our party because they are angry about:

• the HST
• the carbon tax
• Smart Meters
• The BC Rail scandal
• Hydro increases that go to general taxes
• add your issue here

In short, we have a portion of our party that are a conglomeration of various protest votes. We must pull in these edges and allow our unified voice to speak about how we would govern and take our province forward rather than focusing on what we would fix from previous mismanagement. 

I believe in what our party stands for more than what we stand against. I am more convinced than ever that we are the right choice and I will work at reframing our position.